Raise the debt ceiling? Lower spending? Both? These are the questions!

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We are getting lots of questions regarding the debt-ceiling debate.  Here is a brief discussion from our colleagues at Strategas.

In short, the House Republicans would like to cut spending before agreeing to raise the debt ceiling, while the White House has decided not to negotiate spending at this time.  So, the game of “chicken” is on!  In the end, there is very little probability that the US government would default on its debt. Besides being a catastrophe for the global economy, it would also be political suicide.  But the impasse could eventually affect the markets, as it did in 2011.  Of course, the -20% market downturn in 2011 turned out to be a great time to be buying stocks, since the turmoil lasted only about 4 months, followed by a huge rally.  If raising the debt ceiling remains an issue, it will likely catch the attention of the equity markets this spring/summer.  We will be watching and keeping you posted.

Last week we had a productive “Experts Unplugged” conference call with Max Mann, portfolio manager with the Specialized Asset Management team (SAM).  Please check out the recording here, with password Mann01252023.  Max did a great job explaining their outlook for the markets and the economy.  While there are obvious challenges on the economic and inflationary fronts, there are also opportunities in individual stocks and bonds.  We unfortunately experienced some tech difficulties for about five minutes, and we’d like to thank Max and our clients for waiting patiently for those to be resolved.  Some of our scrambling is on the replay, so just fast-forward through that section. :)

The equity indexes appear to be rallying at this time…surprise!  It is common to have bear-market-rallies that tend to get everyone’s hopes up, only to be followed by a downturn as a reminder that the bear is still intact.  This is what happened last summer, when the S&P500 index rallied up about 17%, and then proceeded to drop to a new low.  We encourage folks to keep in mind that the stock market is a forward-looking mechanism, attempting to estimate future earnings growth within the context of the Fed purposefully raising interest rates to slow down the economy.  In our view, there isn’t a clear picture of the future at this time, so the ups and downs are to be expected.

If you have any questions or concerns, don’t hesitate to reach out to us.  As always, thank you for your trust and confidence!

1/20/2023 Off We Go!

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2023 is off to a fast start…. How is January more than halfway over? This time of year is always a reminder that the days may seem long, but the years go by fast. All of us at the BHG are excited to share all that is in store for you throughout the year!

We know there is a lot to cover during the first quarter, but here is what we are focused on right now:

• EXPERTS UNPLUGGED: Join us January 25th to hear Max Mann, Portfolio Manager with the Specialized Asset Management Team, outline his outlook for the stock market. Click here to RSVP.
• SECURE ACT 2.0: Congress passed legislation in December, which impacts retirement account owners starting this year. This affects those of you nearing age 72, and anyone who has inherited an IRA after 2019. Click here for more information.
• TAX DOCUMENTS: ‘Tis the season!! …Tax season, that is. It is upon us, and we are ready to help in any way that we can. As always, Baird releases your tax documents in several waves—this reduces the likelihood of corrected 1099s.
  
• TECHNOLOGY ENHANCEMENTS: We have had many new and exciting developments to enhance your technology experience. From the improved Baird Online App, to the ability to text our direct team phone lines, Baird continues to upgrade our technology offerings.
  

We also look forward to seeing and spending more time with each of you this year! In the meantime, please reach out with any questions.

1/6/2023 New Year, New Beginnings!

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Hello and welcome to our 1st biweekly of 2023.  Happy New Year!  My name is Tom Boh of the Boh Heppe Group.  Kelly and I have been thinking about couple of things we’d like to share.

First of all, we’d like to encourage everyone to focus and what we can control vs. what we can’t.  For example, we anticipate that this year will bring lots of negative economic headlines:  slowing GDP growth, possible economic recession, poorly performing indices, etc., which we cannot control.  However, the types of investments we own is in our control.  Our preference continues to be investing in well-managed firms that generate good cash-flow, pay dividends and have pricing power.  Our view is that these firms will better navigate the more complicated economic environment vs. the indices.

Another example would be to encourage those of you who are still working to keep maxing out those retirement plans and keep adding to your investments in your taxable accounts.  Our experience has been that the more you can add to your investments during market downturns, the better the payoff down the road.  From a budget perspective and if possible, we believe it would be prudent this year to delay the purchase of big-ticket items so that you can invest more.  Again, these are typically things that we can control.

For those of you that are retired, we would suggest that you follow through with your “bucket list” trips, but also look for ways to cut back on items that can wait.  Don’t be surprised to find your budget out-of-whack due to the higher prices that we are experiencing.  Now would be a good time to take a look at spending for this year, and making sure that it is in line with what we are modelling in your financial plan.  Inflation is incredibly sneaky! 

This is all commonsense stuff…kind of like “eat your vegetables, get good exercise and plenty of sleep!” (Often easier said than done!).  The beginning of a new year is a great time to make the distinction between what we can do and control, vs. the things that we can’t control, hopefully letting of those go if we can.  When it comes to the business cycle and the economy, the expression, “This too shall pass!” comes to mind.  Our wish for you is for a safe, healthy, and wonderful 2023 that brings numerous moments of joy and fun!  As in most things in life, patience will be key. 😊

*For those of you interested in more detailed commentary, we have added many of our favorite economists and money managers’ 2023 Outlook publications to our website (click here).   

12/22/2022 Out with the Old, in with the New

Can you believe that it’s been two years since COVID made its first headline? At the beginning, we continued to work towards getting back to “normal.” Now, two years in, it’s clear that we are adjusting to the next normal, rather than getting back to the old. Looking ahead to 2023, there are several specific shifts we will be watching closely:

*Source: Capital Group

What does this mean for the stock and bond market next year? If you’ve been keeping up with our biweeklies, we believe these shifts will cause the market to remain volatile throughout most of 2023. Rather than make predictions now, we anxiously await earnings announcements, and action from the Fed. For now, we focus on spending quality time with our family and friends as we ring in the new year.     

*For those of you interested in more detailed commentary, we have added many of our favorite economists and money managers’ 2023 Outlook publications to our website (click here).   Don’t forget to join us for our Expert’s Unplugged virtual event on January 25th.

From all of us at The Boh Heppe Group, we wish you health, happiness, and prosperity in 2023!

As always, thank you for your trust and confidence. See you next year!

12/9/2022 Holiday Rush

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The rush of the holidays has arrived, and while there are those of us who are on schedule for our preparations, some of us might be a little behind!  From an economic perspective, most of us will be thankful that 2022 will soon be behind us.  Over the next few weeks, we will be receiving the 2023 Outlook reports from our favorite investment managers.  Often, we send these out via email, plus feature our favorite gurus on our quarterly educational call series.  We also will link them to our website for your reading pleasure. :) 

My thoughts about next year are mixed.  On the one hand, we have the inflation issue that may be more difficult to tame than currently thought.  It also wouldn’t surprise me to find the stock market indices continuing to struggle, especially if we indeed have a recession.  On the other hand, there are individual companies that should do fine in this type of environment: e.g., firms that can control costs, increase productivity via the use of technology, pay consistent dividends and most importantly, possess the ability to raise prices.  We are depending on our active managers to hopefully find these gems, which is why we very much believe stock pickers have the advantage in this environment over passive indices.

Also, Kelly and I are optimistic about bonds next year.  Our hope is that we will eventually have bond yields that are above the inflation rate.  We may be on that path…but we are not there yet.  If bond yields do indeed offer a “real” return, we could eventually lower our exposure to stocks in our portfolios and still meet our financial objectives.  

Possibly the biggest challenge for all of us may be monitoring our expenses in this inflationary environment.  All the stuff we normally buy has gone up in price, which begs the question, is there a way to offset at least some of the increase?  For those of us still working, we need to continue to invest in our retirement plans and taxable investments while the financial markets are lower.  For retirees, there are those bucket-list items that need to happen, while also making sure that we are not overly stressing the investment portfolios.  Of course, this is the very puzzle that Kelly and I thrive on, and we are honored and privileged to solve it with you!

SAVE THE DATE: EXPERTS UNPLUGGED JANUARY 25TH         

Please mark your calendars for our quarterly virtual update on the markets with Max Mann, CFA CMT portfolio manager for the Specialized Asset Management team.  Invitation to follow.

As always, thank you for your continued trust and confidence! 

*Ever wanted to text us? Now you can! You can reach us by texting our direct lines anytime.

11/23/2022 Thankful Reflections

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Thanksgiving is always a bittersweet time for me. Excitement fills as I relish the focused time with family, good food, and hopefully, a nap. Yet, it also signals that the end of the year is near, and therefore all remaining items on the 2022 to-do list are now urgent (no matter how far in advance we plan!).

 As for saying goodbye to 2022, many of us will not be sorry to see it go. It is no secret this has been a challenging year for the stock AND bond markets. According to Strategas, this year has clarified four themes we will be watching in 2023 and beyond:

• - Inflation for Longer
  - Quantitative Tightening
  - More Defensive than Cyclical
  - De-Globalization

Tom reminded us in the last biweekly that patience is the key for successful, long-term investors. We remain patient and focused on the things that we can control.

With just a few short weeks left of the year, we have added new, year-end planning resources to our website. Please click here to review. Please also note, in observance of the NYSE holiday schedule, we will have the following modified office hours this week:

Wednesday 11/23/2022: Our office will close early at 2:30 p.m. MST.
Thursday 11/24/2022: Our office will be closed.
Friday 11/25/2022: Our office will be open 7:30 a.m.-12:00 p.m. MST.       

As we count our blessings this Thanksgiving season, please know that you are among them. What we love about Thanksgiving is taking the time to remember how blessed and thankful we are. We are truly thankful for your continued trust and confidence and hope you have many things to be grateful for in the upcoming year.

 Happy Thanksgiving from the entire Boh Heppe Team!

Jesus, Kelly, Tom, Amanda & Larry

11/16/2022 “To Lose Patience is To Lose the Battle” (M. Ghandi)

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In our last biweekly, Kelly outlined what we thought was good…and also the not-so-good, therefore I thought we would continue that theme.

The midterm elections have come and gone, and we are still awaiting some results.  The equity markets prefer a divided government on the federal level, and this looks to be the case.  We will have to be patient on this front for a little while longer.

Keep in mind, tough markets are a great time to stress-test our long-term financial plans.  One of the hallmarks of using Monte-Carlo-simulation is that bear markets and recessions are built into the analysis.  Plus, it is very easy to make minor adjustments to increase the probability of success if needed.  If current trends in the bond market continue, the future capital market assumptions for bond-yields may very well be adjusted in the positive direction, and that would be considered good news for fixed income investors.

Speaking of bond-yields, we are happy to report that after waiting several years, the interest paid by Baird’s bank-deposit program, available money-market funds and CDs have increased substantially (Cash Sweep Program | Baird (rwbaird.com).  Our firm is required to mark-to-market the interest rates on cash-equivalent investments.  Retail banks do not have this requirement.  Please let us know if you’d like to take advantage of our current rates as they are subject to change.  This goes for Treasury bills and notes as well.

The key during times like these is indeed patience.  The stock and bond market will likely stabilize once inflation starts to come down and there is more clarity about the Fed raising interest rates.  As we have seen before during bear markets/recessions, usually the best thing to do is to refrain from committing unforced errors by making abrupt changes.  The money managers have been making their adjustments all year.  Kelly and I have been busy offsetting taxable gains, and where appropriate, implementing a few tweaks of our own as time goes on.    

We are here for you, so please do not hesitate to reach out to us.  And as always, thank you for your trust and confidence. 

10/28/2022 The Good, the Bad, & the Ugly…Good? What Good?

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As we head full steam towards year-end, I know many of us will not be sorry to see 2022 in the rearview mirror. While we are very aware of the bad and ugly in the market & economy, perhaps we have not paid enough attention to the good.

Here are some of the topics we are excited about right now:

- Financial Plan: We have been updating many of your financial plans, and despite the depressed account values, the probabilities of success have still landed in the “confidence zone”. It’s important and helpful to realize that, from a long-term perspective, you are still on track.

- Interest Rates: Savers are finally earning interest on their cash. This includes Baird’s bank deposit program. We have been purchasing 3- to 12- month CDs and Treasury bills yielding 3% or more.  Check your rates at the bank (you likely won’t be impressed) and reach out to us if you’d like to get market rates on your cash equivalents. 

- Capital Losses: Due to the market volatility, we are finding and capturing losses in your non-IRA portfolios. This should help to reduce your tax liability in 2022 and potentially into 2023.

- Midterm Elections: The good news is that the midterms are almost over! Dan Clifton recently published his midterm election preview. Click here to watch or read his insights.
 

Continue to stick to your plan, focus on the long-term and lean on us to get you through the bad and the ugly.  We know we sound like a broken record, but these principles have always served us well, so we will continue to stay strong.

09/19/2022 Life Balance & Light the Night

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07/21/2022: The "R" Word

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It’s been a few months since we mentioned the “R” word – recession, yet you may be hearing the word more often in the news. We have been through recessions together before, and we know that we will go through them again. At this time, analysts have increased their predictions of the probability that a recession will occur within the next year to 50%. This is because the markets are worried the Fed will raise interest rates too much and too fast, which could stop economic growth and could start a recession.

 While no one really knows when the next recession will arrive, we do know that we are prepared. We also know that investor behavior has the biggest impact on investment results. Considering this, here are some “R” words of our own that we are focusing right now:

• Revisit your financial plan and confirm you are on track.
• Review your cash needs for the next year to ensure we have accurately forecasted your liquidity needs.
• Rely on your asset allocation.
• Remind yourself to continue checking items off your bucket list!

 The “R” word (recession) evokes many heavy emotions. We encourage you to instead remember our “R” words above J. We are here to reassure you and help you to manage your expectations, no matter which direction the market takes.

For more insights, please click here to read Mark Keller’s latest letter to investors.

06/24/2022: The Long View

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In the last six months, we have watched the stock market move from correction-territory down to bear-market territory and currently contemplating a recession.  No matter how many times we have experienced the life of a business cycle, the potential ending always feels like a gut-punch and a surprise.  History teaches us that since WWII there have been 42 corrections, 17 bear markets, and 13 recessions.  During that time span, the S&P500 is up over 450,000%*...and still, it is difficult to find solace in these emotionless facts.  In the words of our colleague, Ross Mayfield, “…volatility is an unavoidable part of the investor experience.  A feature, not a bug.”

What we know for sure is that the US stock market is mightily struggling to put the puzzle together:  What will earnings be next year?  How much should we pay for a firm’s stream of earnings, especially now that we can buy high-quality bonds that yield more than stocks?  This puzzle may remain unsolved until we see sure signs that inflation has peaked and heading downward, and no one knows when this might happen, and it is this uncertainty that has the markets roiling. 

In the long view, staying on track is what is most important in reaching long-term financial objectives.  This is not the first, tough business cycle that we have experienced together, nor will it be our last.  Market volatility, like we are experiencing today, is indeed integrated into your long-term financial plan.  Cliches can be tiresome, but indeed, staying-the-course during these times is most often the recipe-for-success.  As always, we will continue to keep you posted on our thoughts, and you are always welcome to reach out to us via phone or email.

* The market is up by 450,000% with dividends reinvested.

06/10/2022: Mid-Year Update

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Happy Summer! We cannot believe we are almost half-way through 2022. For us, summer is all about freedom and growth—and last summer, we shared this message with you when we sent out the money trees. To that end, we thought that it is a great time to provide you with a mid-year update from the Boh Heppe Group.

New and Exciting
Office Remodel: As mentioned earlier this year, our offices have recently received a facelift! Our reception area is now located on the 8th floor, though our office suite remains in the same location on the 9th floor.
New Website: Our website is also getting a facelift! We can’t wait to share the new format and information with you. Set to launch next week.
Dream Team: As always, we are all dedicated to ensuring your experience with us is nothing other than spectacular. All team members are copied on this email—please add each of us to your contacts. Here is the latest information about our newest team members roles:

Amanda DePriest | Lead Client Specialist | 303-270-6317
With over four years for superior client service experience, Amanda joined the BHG in April. Amanda is a remarkable addition to the team—her commitment to going above and beyond fits in perfectly with our concierge services. She is your “go to” contact to assist with all account related inquires.

Larry Lagerberg | Client Associate Extraordinaire| 303-270-6316
We recruited Larry back to the financial services industry, after he took a break from A.G. Edwards to explore his music career. Larry’s 17 years of industry experience are invaluable to the Team. He is our project manager and works with us on a part-time basis: Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays.

Jesus Baez “JB”| Super Intern
Jesus is currently studying Finance at DU, set to graduate in November. His enthusiasm for financial services is infectious and we couldn’t be more thrilled to welcome him into the fold. Jesus will be supporting our clients and Team throughout the summer.

Looking Ahead
Quarterly “Unplugged” Educational Events: We continue to host a quarterly virtual events, focused on providing you direct access to financial experts. SAVE THE DATE: Our next event will be held on Wednesday, July 20th featuring bond expert, Dave Miyazaki, from Confluence Investment Management.

Summer Patio Happy Hour Series: Back by popular demand, we will host three happy hour events on our rooftop deck. SAVE THE DATES: June 16th, July 13th, and August 18th. Hope to see you there!

Biweekly Commentaries & Monthly Strategy Webinars: We will continue to directly communicate our thoughts on financial planning, news, and markets throughout the year, both in writing and via Vimeo. Baird will continue to provide monthly webinar opportunities on a variety of management topics; replays are made available on our website.

Every day we each wake up grateful for the opportunity to partner with you. We hope your tree continues to grow, just as our relationship grows while working together towards achieving your financial freedom.

05/27/2022: History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.

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Today, Kelly and I want you to know that we empathize with how hard it is to remain positive when there is so much negative news out there.  As human beings, we naturally place more emphasis on potential threats vs. positive outcomes. This is one bias that has helped us survive as a species for so many years.  However, when it comes to investing, this aversion to risk is not always our friend.  Additionally, the stoking of fear by our media can also be disheartening and cause us to make decisions based on emotions rather than data.

During times such as these, it can be very helpful to encourage the rational side of our brains to engage.  With this in mind, our friends at First Trust put together a set of charts that show historical patterns that help us keep in mind the longer view of the stock market, the US economy, and hopefully our personal, long-term financial goals.  There are nine charts available here for your perusal. 

This chart shows the historical performance of the S&P 500 index since 1942, highlighting the bull and bear markets.  These charts don’t predict the future, but the patterns you can see are pretty obvious.  The bull markets of the past have shown much higher returns and longer duration than the bear markets.  While no one can time the bull/bear cycles, it seems rational that, to the extent of our risk tolerance, staying invested in stocks would have been prudent.  Also, investing during the downturns would seem to have been prudent (kudos to Warren Buffett!).  What this chart doesn’t show is the relative growth of the S&P500 index…that chart is below.  Notice the vertical axis on the left?  It is not linear.  The dollar amounts double as you go up the axis, which is the only way that you could fit the data on one page.

Market volatility is never fun, and it can be a real joy-stealer if we let it, which is why keeping the longer view in mind is so important.  And while past performance never predicts future results, it helps to remember that indeed, history doesn’t necessarily repeat itself, but it does often rhyme. 

05/13/2022: We’ve Seen this Movie Before

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Let’s face it, our investments have not been fun to watch this year. Most asset classes, including bonds, have pulled back since the all-time-high on January 4th. While this is normal market behavior, it doesn’t mean that it feels good.

The investing principle that creates a successful strategy is consistency. The #1 threat to your investment portfolio is emotional decision-making. More money may be lost in response to the emotions of fear and greed than all the financial, economic, and geopolitical events combined. It’s not the events themselves but our response to the events that can cause the greatest harm.

During times like these, it is our role as your partner on this journey, to make sure we are accounting for today, tomorrow, and most importantly, your long-term future. We find it helpful to anchor our feelings with facts and reflect on what has happened in the past. Our colleagues at Baird published a great piece showing that when it comes to investing, you really must be present to win. Click here to see a clear picture showing that most often, time in the market is more important than timing the market.

One of the most important reminders is that we have been through this before and that, together we will get us through it again. We would also reiterate that we are finally in true ‘correction’ territory, and so for those folks with extra capital, now is the time to be buying stocks. Otherwise, we wait patiently and allow the asset managers to apply their expertise. In the meantime, we will continue to be in touch and available as we take this financial journey together.

Congratulations to all the graduates and their families!

04/28/2022: Deep Breaths

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Yes, there is a lot going on! As of this writing, the stock market is down 12% YTD. This is due to selling pressure because of the ever-more-aggressive expectations of a Fed-led global tightening cycle, growth and supply chain headwinds from China lockdowns, the Russia/Ukraine conflict, and mixed earnings.

Though as stated in our last biweekly, we continue to remain optimistic for the long-term stock market outlook. This chart, published from First Trust, illustrates the power of time in the market. For example, the probability of positive returns with a holding period of at least 3-years is 87.3%. What a great reminder that the current volatility will be short-term, though it may not feel that way right now.

While the market sorts out all of these issues, we would like to encourage each of you to shift your focus onto other variables that impact your wealth management picture as well:

• Estate Plan Review & Trust Analysis
• Insurance Review, including Life, Disability, and Long-Term-Care
• Goal Based Financial Planning
• Tax Return Analysis, including strategizing in collaboration with your accountant
• Charitable Giving Techniques
• College Funding Strategies

Did you know? Our Team is ready and available to help you check items off the above list! By addressing each of the above in conjunction with your investment strategy, you will help to set yourself up for financial success. We look forward to our next conversation!

Experts Unplugged with Joe Hodes – Replay

We hosted our quarterly, virtual “Experts Unplugged” event on April 19th with Joe Hodes, CFA® and Research Analyst for the Specialized Asset Management Team. For those of you interested in learning more about stock analysis and selection, this replay is for you! Please click here to watch/listen
[event password: 6DbJmapj].

04/13/2022: Headwinds vs. Tailwinds

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*IMPORTANT REMINDER: The stock market and our office will be closed this Friday April 15th. With the 2021 tax filing deadline on Monday the 18th, please make sure to submit all your last-minute tax related requests (documents, contributions, etc.) ASAP.

As Tom highlighted in our last Biweekly, the stock market has been far more resilient than we expected. We are all aware of the headwinds for the market, which include inflation, increasing affects from geopolitical conflicts, the Fed raising interest rates, and finally, the mid-term elections this November.

While the market continues to navigate the headwinds, we are seeing tailwinds emerging that could help maintain greater stability:

• Labor Market: With unemployment well below 4% and wage growth on the rise, the labor market is strong and tight everywhere.
• US Companies: Per Credit Suisse, “S&P 500 sales rise with inflation, and since the beginning of the year, expectations for 2022 nominal GDP have risen from 7.5% to 8.7%”.
• Economy Reopening: The US economy continues to see elevated demand for services, particularly in the travel industry. We know this firsthand from our clients—most are travelling fast and furious again.

The tailwinds don’t stop there! Read Baird’s Ross Mayfield’s article “A Dose of Optimism” for several more topics that could bolster the market.

No matter which direction we are headed, we are optimistic about the long-term outlook for the stock market. If you are thirsty for more market commentary, please join us for our Experts Unplugged virtual event on Tuesday, April 19th at 12:00 MST featuring Joe Hodes, Research Analyst for the Specialized Asset Management Group.

04/01/2022: Yield Curve and the “R”-word

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While US stocks thus far have shown to be resilient amidst the ongoing issues around the globe, the bond market has been exhibiting a different story. As we all know, the Fed has begun to raise interest rates in the hopes of slowing down inflation. The risk of course is that if the Fed goes too fast, then their policy will slow the economy down and potentially cause a recession.

As time goes on, we will be hearing more and more about the “Yield Curve” which has been used in the past as a forward indicator of recession. For a more complete explanation, please click here and read Ross Mayfield’s piece on the subject. In a nutshell, a “normal” yield curve is a sign of a healthy bond market. When we buy a bond, all other things being equal, the longer the maturity the greater the risk of being repaid our principal. Therefore, the bonds with the longer maturity should pay us a higher interest rate to take on that risk. If we plot the interest rate on the vertical axis and the maturity on the horizontal, then a normal yield curve will have an upward slope as we increase the maturity date.

In real life, the yield curve is seldom a straight line. At times, when investors have a negative view of the economy the yield curve can invert, which means that shorter term bonds pay a higher interest rate than longer term bonds. In the financial news, we will often hear about the spread between what the 2-year Treasury yield vs. the 10-year Treasury yield (2/10 spread). As of this writing, the 2s and 10s are yielding almost the same amount (2.310% vs. 2.354% from WSJ). We would say that the yield curve is flat, and trending towards inversion. If indeed inversion occurs, then this one indicator may point to a future recession. Keep in mind that one indicator by itself is not sufficient to predict the future, but it is a data that the financial media will be extensively covering. As our colleague Ross Mayfield points out, the US economy is certainly challenged, but not necessarily weak. As always, we will keep you posted as pertinent financial themes develop.

03/18/2022: Portfolio changes vs. Steady-as-she-goes?

Click here to watch the video. 

Some of us remember the days of driving a car with a manual transmission. When the road was dry and flat, we could easily cruise in a higher gear for long distances. However, when faced with a steep hill, we would often have to downshift to a lower gear to maintain speed and power lest we slow down and possibly stall the engine. Our friends at RiverFront use this analogy for the economy, which is now faced with the steep hill of increasing oil prices combined with the Fed raising interest rates. Could the US economy stall?

At this time, the experts we trust believe the US economy may indeed achieve a soft landing for a variety of reasons including low unemployment, above average profit margins, and improving manufacturing/service index numbers. While a soft landing may or may not happen (crystal ball?), the question always remains: should we be making changes in the portfolios?

Well, as in many things in life, that depends! For example, at the asset allocation level, we strive to maintain the correct equity/bond/cash proportions that fit a person’s risk tolerance and long-term goals. So, at this level, often it is steady-as-she-goes and therefore small-to-no-changes.

However, on the level of the holdings of various asset managers, there indeed have been moderate changes. For example, some managers have gradually decreased exposure to international stocks, particularly emerging markets, while other have chosen to steadily transition international exposure to regions that produce commodities, such as Australia, Norway and Latin America. Our colleagues at SAM (Specialized Asset Management) confirmed their low exposure to Russia, continue to maintain limited exposure to volatile asset classes (e.g., small cap), and recently added inflation hedges such as gold, TIPS and domestic real estate. Applying the “manual transmission” metaphor to our portfolios: While we may continue to drive the same car (asset allocation level), there has definitely been some gradual downshifting (changes in holdings). In our view, this continues to be the most effective way to manage portfolio risk.

As always, we will keep you posted as investment themes continue to arise and develop. In the meantime, thank you for your trust and confidence.

03/04/2022: Geopolitics Comes to the Fore

Click here to watch the video. 

First and foremost, our thoughts and prayers go out to the people of Ukraine, especially for those friends and family members that have loved ones there during this dangerous time.

Secondly, investors have a lot to figure out over the near term, and while there seems to be somewhat of a resistance level forming on the S&P500 index as of this writing, let’s not kid ourselves, the stock market hasn’t quite figured this puzzle out. On the one hand, the US economy has had some momentum as indicated by great earnings numbers, GDP growth and lowering unemployment. On the other hand, the Fed has its work cut out for it: to intelligently raise interest rates in to fight inflation, but not stop the economy.

In general, geopolitical events have historically caused brief downturns in the stock market, but then fairly quickly recover and achieve positive returns within six-months or so. It all boils down to earnings and GDP growth. If both remain positive for the year, then the stock market often responds in kind. What makes the current event in the Ukraine more difficult to gauge is the effect that this conflict (and resulting sanctions) will have on inflation, especially energy and food prices. Since the Fed’s goal is to curb inflation, this particular geopolitical event may make the Fed’s task more difficult. Time will tell.

In the meantime, the S&P500 index is only about -9% off the all-time closing high achieved in early January. In our view, this is the time to ride your asset allocation since our long-term financial objectives depend on it! For those that have the risk tolerance, buying good quality stocks during this correction is also prudent, in our view.

02/18/2022: Under the Surface

Click here to watch the video. 

If you are a Disney fan like my family, then you may have also had the Encanto soundtrack on non-stop repeat since the movie release November 2021. While the most popular song from the movie is “We Don’t Talk About Bruno”, the song “Surface Pressure” has stuck with me more than any other. One reason is that I relate to the character, Luisa who belts the tune—we both have felt many family pressures (we can talk about that during our next meeting- ha!). But more-so, how the song relates to the stock market.

As recently as the beginning of this year, the market has seemed more like a pressure cooker than something climbing to new heights (as a reminder, the stock market hit an all-time high 01/04/2022). Currently, there are many reasons the pressure has been building underneath the surface for the market: inflation, overdue for a correction, supply chain issues—you’ve heard about them. Yet, there are some areas that could ease the pressure:

• Productivity: According to Baird’s Ross Mayfield, the trend in productivity just hit the highest non-recession level in ~20 years. This alone could help ease supply and inflation issues.
• Inflation: Per Dan Clifton with Strategas, the higher inflation rates have driven state tax revenues to new all-time highs [in January]. Additionally, we have already seen that in this type of inflationary environment, U.S. dividend paying stocks are the right place to be.
• Earnings: As of this writing, over 60% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q4 2021 earnings and thus far, 76% are beating estimates. Furthermore, year-over-year earnings growth is coming in around 27%.

There will always be pressures lurking underneath the surface of the market. Please know that we are watching closely and will keep you posted. In the meantime, go watch Encanto!

02/04/2022: Statement Trepidation

Click here  to watch the video. 

No surprises here. We are indeed experiencing the “volatility” that skipped 2021 but has returned alive-and-well in 2022. In my nearly four decades as an investor, the ups-and-downs of the market have become expected and even “normal.” Long ago, I stopped looking at my account values every month to check if my net worth was up or down. Now that we have internet portals available on our smart phones, we can actually see daily account value fluctuations with the push of a button. Is it a good idea to be checking this daily or monthly? In my view, the answer would be whether this activity steals your joy? We live in a short-term-focused culture, and yet our investment objectives and financial goals tend to be long term. Add in our psychological bias that causes us to focus on potential threats (i.e., bad news), it is no wonder that our anxiety about the markets can go through the roof.

Our colleague and Investment Strategy Analyst, Ross Mayfield put together some of the history of market selloffs going back to 1974, and what the market returns turned out to be 1, 3 and 5-years later (click here). It turns out (also not a surprise) that market selloffs were good opportunities to be patient and to focus on our longer-term objectives. In fact, these pullbacks turned out to be good times for buying, not selling.

The historical chart below is also helpful in showing the multiple reasons to sell and get out of stocks since 2009. Interestingly, when looking at this data in hindsight, most of us would agree that the downturns listed would have been a great opportunity to buy. And yet our brain tells us that every future decline looks very risky. Do you see the disconnect? Yes, the downturns of the past were indeed opportunities, and yet future declines may also be opportunities, in our view. For math geeks like me, we notice that the curve below is not linear or constant. Stock market returns tend to be measured in compound interest, the “8th wonder of the world” according to Albert Einstein, which is actually an exponential function. Truth be told, if we want compounded returns in the stock market, we must “gird-our-loins” and expect volatility! Thankfully, we don’t have to absorb all that volatility. Your asset allocation is the first line of defense, and we will continue to monitor and discuss this…often!



Thank you for your trust and confidence!

01/21/2022: Danger: Headlines Can Impair Investment Decisions

Click here to watch the video. 

Our friends at Riverfront Investment Group coined the title of this issue: Danger: Headlines Can Impair Investment Decisions. We could not agree more! We are only 21 days into the new year and there is no shortage of scary headlines.

It is no secret that the bearish headlines get more of our attention than those that are bullish. Humans have what is called a “negativity bias” which refers to our proclivity to notice or weigh more heavily negative information over positive. Our clients can rely on us to help them cut through the noise, so that we don’t get lost in the negativity. Here are a few of the topics that have already generated many negative headlines, yet our take on the subjects isn’t as dire:

1- Inflation and the Fed: According to Strategas, the Fed has a big task this year as it attempts to slow inflation without stopping the economy. Per Baird’s Ross Mayfield, even if the Fed raises rates 3-4 times this year, the Fed Funds rate would still be historically low at about 1%.

2- Midterm Elections: The midterm election year for a first term president has historically been volatile. This is because the markets don’t like uncertainty. Once the election is completed, the uncertainty is gone, and the markets typically adjust accordingly.

3- Overdue for a Market Correction: As we’ve communicated in our meetings and previous biweeklies, the market is overdue for a correction. The S&P 500 is down -5.9% as of this writing, off its ALL-TIME closing high. If indeed the market does pull back the average -17%, that will be a great buying opportunity in our opinion.

If we can impress anything upon you, please remember that not all headlines are created equal…sift through the noise and be sure to not let it drive your investment decisions.

As always, thank you for your trust and confidence. 

01/07/2022: Welcome 2022

Click here to watch the video. 

Is it just me, or did the previous year seem to pass by quickly? Every new year presents fresh beginnings, new opportunities, and of course…unexpected surprises. As we stated this time last year, change typically brings with it an exciting energy that emerges from transformation, and we look forward with hope and optimism for 2022. We are also so thankful for our clients and sending our best wishes and hopes for you and your families. What can you expect from the Boh Heppe Group this year?

Continued Consistent Service and Value for 2022:

In the office & working! Our team returned to the office fulltime Memorial Day of last year and haven’t looked back since. Our commitment to you has always been that you get two advisors for the price of one! Many of our competitor-advisors market themselves as a “team” but actually work independently…and many of them are still working from home. Maybe that explains why more new clients than ever chose to work with our team in 2021. The feedback we have been hearing is that the “decentralized financial-service-model” adopted by our competitors has provided “less-than-stellar” customer service. Our client-service model remains robust for 2022…which means you will continue to hear from us proactively to review your portfolio, update your financial plan, analyze your estate plan, and help manage your tax liability. Although we will of course follow COVID protocols and endure a pending remodel, Kelly and I fully intend on being “in the office” available and on-call for you.

Quarterly “Experts Unplugged” Educational Webinars: As in previous years, we will continue to have our active asset managers and associated experts “unplugged” for your enrichment. This week we featured Doug Sandler, the Head of Global Strategy for RiverFront Investment Group discussing their Outlook for 2022. For those who could not attend, please check out the recording of the presentation here, in addition to the actual 2022 Outlook report entitled, “Riding the Recovery”.

Biweekly Commentaries & Monthly Strategy Webinars: Kelly and I will continue to directly communicate our thoughts on financial planning, news, and markets throughout the year, both in writing and via Vimeo. Baird will continue to provide monthly webinar opportunities on a variety of management topics.

New Developments for 2022:

Congratulations to Bobby Burns: We were fortunate that Bobby, a registered, 7-year industry veteran joined our team as Senior Client Specialist. We are happy to report that Bobby will begin his studies to obtain the CFP® certification this year, following in the footsteps and tradition of Karen, Kelly, and Tom! This is a big commitment (and no small task!), which will benefit Bobby’s career, our team, and most importantly, our clients. We are all very excited, supportive and look forward to Bobby’s progress!

Farewell to Alisha: We were grateful to find Alisha at the beginning of the COVID pandemic when the entire country was working from home. Alisha wanted to experience the financial-services industry, accepted our position as a client assistant, and has served our team well. Alisha decided that now is the time for her to pursue what she studied in college and has accepted a position working remotely with Jefferson County as a Pre-trial Case Worker. We thank Alisha for her service to our team and wish her all-the-best in her new adventure.

Office Remodel: After 10 years, Baird has decided to update/refresh our working space throughout the building (7th, 8th & 9th floors). There will likely be signs of construction when you come in for a visit, and we may even have to play musical-office when they get to our little corner. We will keep you posted. One new development: Since we now have over three floors of office space in this building, the firm has decided to place the reception desk on the 8th floor. Visitors will now go to Reception on the 8th floor, and we will come down and escort you up to the 9th. Wow…what used to be our little branch 10 years ago is all grown-up!

Please Keep Us in the Loop in 2022:

Life events & changes often have a significant impact on our financial plans and success. Please don’t hesitate to reach out to us this year so that we can help, whether proactively or after-the fact. Please know that every day we wake up grateful for the opportunity to partner with you on your financial journey.

As always, thank you for your trust and confidence.

12/22/2021: Endings and Beginnings

Click here to watch the video. 

You may still be wrapping up frantic holiday shopping or planning to host the big family dinner, but we are already looking ahead to 2022. 2021 was another year for the history books. From Delta to Omicron, rising inflation, and taper tantrums, how should investors apply what we learned from the past year to 2022? Baird produced an excellent video highlighting the items we will be watching closely next year. Please take time to watch and listen by clicking here.

Our top takeaways from Baird’s Outlook:

• While inflation is currently coming in at 7%, Strategas believes investors should become accustomed to inflation closer to 3-4% a year from now.
• It is important to manage investors’ expectations after a few years of fantastic returns. We foresee single digit returns in 2022.
• It is reasonable to assume long-term interest rates will rise above the 2% range it has been trading at for the past several years.
• Midterm election years are typically more volatile than non-election years. This has been an incredible buying opportunity for investors in year’s past. Every time the S&P 500 has declined the year of a mid-term election, the year following has shown positive results (every year since 1946).

For those that are interested in additional 2022 Outlook publications, please click here. Finally, please join us on Wednesday, January 5th at 12:00 MST for our first Expert’s Unplugged event of 2022. Reply to reach out to the Team to RSVP.

As always, thank you for your trust and confidence. Happy New Year!

12/10/2021: Ready or Not, Here comes 2022!

Click here to watch the video. 

Hello and welcome to our biweekly! My name is Tom Boh, Director of the Boh Heppe Group, and we hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving & Hanukkah! And of course, I’m sure that we are all ready for Christmas and New Year’s just around the corner…yikes!

As you know, we often highlight the thinking from our trusted money managers, since they actually have skin-in-the-game: make buy/sell decisions and like us, have their own money at risk. Our friends at Specialized Asset Management (SAM) came out with an update this week, and we’d like to share that with you. Click here for the complete Update.

The SAM folks believe that the “wall of worry” is everchanging and omnipresent, and the latest bricks to climb for investors are the Fed’s tapering plan, and the Omicron variant. Underlying these news stores is the real concern, which is inflation. According to SAM, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is currently at 6.2%, the largest year-over-year increase since 1990. For comparison purposes, the Fed target inflation rate is 2%, and the 20-year average has been 2.2%.

The bad news regarding inflation is that we as consumers have less purchasing power with our dollars, and potentially lower “real” returns on our investments. For business owners, the calculus becomes more complicated as profit margins get squeezed from all angles. According to the SAM investment team, the bad news is more than offset by good news. E.g., the economic expansion remains intact; robust demand for workers; increased consumer cash levels and pent-up consumer demand; record levels of corporate cash; and inventory rebuilding. In their view, the best way to navigate inflationary periods is to own high-quality companies, competitively advantaged, run by smart & nimble management teams that can pass through costs via higher prices.

The year 2022 will bring new information, along with continued worries and challenges. Also, more volatility, in our view. As always, we will keep you posted as we travel this financial journey together.

Thank you for your trust and confidence & all the best as we get ready for a very, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

11/24/2021: Thanks for Thanksgiving

Click here to watch the video. 

There will always be headlines and topics that will cause us to climb that wall of worry. In the spirit of the season, let’s take a moment to pause and reflect on what we are grateful for this year.

Here at the Boh Heppe Group, we are especially thankful for:

• Karen Ogard: She is already thoroughly enjoying her retirement!
• Bobby Burns: Bobby has been a spectacular addition to the team.
• Alisha Rotola-Digby: Alisha is our anchor, and we cannot wait to welcome her back in the office next week.
• Suzanne Jackson: Suzanne has been invaluable support while Alisha was out of the office.

In addition to our amazing team members, we are also celebrating the ongoing reopening of the economy, which includes family and social gatherings.

Last but certainly not least, we are very thankful for all of YOU for your continued trust and confidence.

Happy Thanksgiving from the Boh Heppe Group!

11/12/2021: Taking a Deep Breath

Click here to watch the video. 

Hello everyone and welcome to our Biweekly! My name is Tom Boh, Director of the Boh Heppe Group, and today we find ourselves in that strange time period after Halloween, when we begin to quickly gain speed towards Thanksgiving and Christmas! Time to take a deep breath…now exhale…ok, here we go!

As we hurtle through Q4, what is it that we know so far? For S&P500 companies, we know that Q3 earnings, revenue and profit margins have been outstanding overall, in addition to record levels of cash listed on respective balance sheets. And while cost pressures continue to be a common theme for reporting companies, both pricing power and strong demand have also been widely commented upon. Indeed, corporate America continues to experience a somewhat robust recovery.

What about inflation? Well, we are starting to hear the word “persistent” more often than “transitory.” And from the consumer perspective, we all know firsthand just how much goods & services are rising in cost, and it is so aggravating. However, from the investor perspective, inflation is not all-bad for our stock holdings. In fact, historical data evidenced by the S&P 500 shows that stocks tend to perform well during periods of moderate inflation. Of course the hope is that inflation does indeed stay moderate, and if it does, the economy should adjust accordingly.

What about the Fed? Thus far, the action has been all about tapering monthly bond-buys, but not the raising of short-term borrowing rates as of yet. As usual, this is really where-the-rubber-meets-the-road, and we will be keeping you posted as we move forward.

Thank you for your trust and confidence! Don’t forget to breath.

10/29/2021: Ghostly Greetings!

Click here to watch the video. 

It’s scary how soon 2021 will come to a close. In this edition of our biweekly, we thought it would be timely to remind you of some planning tips to consider over the next several weeks before it’s too late…

• Gifting: Whether you are gifting to a charity or family member, it is important to pay attention to the completion of the gift. For example, if you give funds to a family member on December 15th, but the recipient does not deposit the check until January 2nd, the gift was NOT completed in 2021. Don’t risk waiting until the end-of-year to complete your gifting/QCDs/RMDs. Let’s get them done now!

• Tax planning: 2021 has presented particularly challenging tax situations for some individuals: large, realized capital gains, high capital gain distributions from mutual funds and at this time, few to no significant tax-loss-harvest opportunities to be found. Please review your tax situation and consult with your CPA or tax software to run year-end tax projections and whether they affect estimated payments.

• Tax Codes Expiring at Year’s End: There are several tax provisions set to expire at the end of this year. Of particular interest for our clients: through the end of 2021, you can deduct up to 100% of your AGI with charitable donations. Click here for a list of other expiring provisions.

• Interested in more tips? SAVE THE DATE: Year End Tax & Financial Planning Webinar 11/17/2021 12:00 CT. Registration and details available soon.

Please remember that everyone’s investment and tax situation is unique. Let us know if we can help in any way.

Now for a Halloween Treat
We so enjoy having a close relationship with you, both personally and professionally. To that end, we thought it would be fun for you get to know some tidbits about us. Click here to complete the “Keys to your Financial Puzzle” game. Hint: we have been dropping clues throughout the summer for this very treat! Hint: we have been dropping clues throughout the summer for this very treat!

10/15/2021: Q4: Year-end Outlook

Click here to watch the video. 

Hello and welcome to our biweekly. My name is Tom Boh, Director of the Boh Heppe Group, and this week we had our quarterly conference call featuring one of our favorite market experts, Mark Keller, CEO/CIO of Confluence Investment Management. Please click here to access the replay from our website and referenced disclosures. This link is also on our website and available upon request.

Mark made the important distinction between the often-negative messaging that we may see in the media vs. what the economic data is actually showing. In his view the most important consideration is where we are in the economic cycle. Once GDP (and earnings) hit their lows in a recession, the “Recovery” stage begins and continues until GDP/earning reach the previous levels before the recession. Believe it or not, the data shows that we have already recovered, and in fact have entered the “Expansion” phase. Historically speaking, this is usually a good time to be invested in equites.

We also discussed inflation, and the fact that our economy has experienced four decades of low inflation due primarily to globalization and deregulation. Mark drew the distinction between goods and services. The inflation we are experiencing right now is mostly in the “goods” category, due to supply chain disruption. The “services” category has not reacted in the same way as of yet, which in Mark’s view is notable. To quote Mark regarding inflation: “It won’t be the ‘70s, but it won’t be the last two decades either.” Over time, especially as supply disruptions subside, inflation may very well settle down.

Lots more charts and interesting commentary are available for your edification. Our quarterly conference calls are about 60 minutes in duration, and as many of you know from experience, Mark is always worth a listen!

Happy Autumn everyone! As always, thank you for your trust and confidence, and until next time, take care.

09/30/2021: Along for the Ride

Click here to watch the video. 

It’s been a busy week for the BHG! We hosted our fundraiser for the Children’s Hospital of Colorado PICU at Topgolf. We celebrated client engagements, we mourned passing’s, and the market is becoming volatile again.

Here are a few specific updates and what we are watching now:

• PICU Fundraiser: We raised over $2500 for the Pediatric Intensive Care Unit at the Children’s Hospital of Colorado. Thanks to all who participated; we had a wonderful time! This donation link will be live through October 8th if you are still interested in donating.
• Volatility: We entered the expansion phase of the market cycle this quarter, which tends to be more volatile than the recovery phase. As you have heard us say over the past several months, we are overdue for a true “pullback”. We expect the next few months to be bumpy.
• Save the Date for Experts Unplugged: Join us on Wednesday, October 13th at Noon MDT for our next virtual webinar. We are excited to host Mark Keller, CEO and CIO for Confluence Investment Management. Mark will share his insights and year-end outlook. 

The events from this week have been a good reminder for us that life is busy and messy and still, somehow must go on. It’s an honor to be a trusted advocate and partner with you on your journey. Thank you for your continued trust and confidence.

09/17/2021: Topgolf, and the Light at the End of the Tunnel

Click here to watch the video. 

Today we are going to cover two topics! The first is our Topgolf fundraising event for the Children’s Hospital of Colorado PICU (Pediatric Intensive Care Unit), Tuesday, Sept. 28th, 5:30 – 8:30pm in Centennial. We sent invitations to everyone, and we will resend the information next week. Some of you may know that a year ago my son, Michael (14 at the time) spent 6 days in the PICU, and the amazing doctors, nurses and caregivers essentially saved his life while dealing with my wife and me during a very stressful time. The thing is, they save lives on a daily basis for lots of kids year-round, serving families from Colorado and our surrounding states. We hope you all can participate in some way! Here is the link to register and/or donate directly to Children’s. Even if you can’t attend the event, please consider making a donation. Know that you can choose the amount, you don’t have to go by the suggested amounts and most importantly, 100% of your donation goes to Children’s Hospital.

The second topic is about our continued economic recovery since last year’s recession and the pandemic. As we lookout for “the pullback” that will eventually happen, there are some positive perspectives to ponder. Our friends at RiverFront Investment Group point out that the Delta variant may indeed lead to slower economic growth rates, but on the other hand could very well prolong the recovery. Unemployment should continue to trend lower, and inflation will eventually normalize, likely in the 2-3% range in their view. And as you know, there will be lots of headlines about the legislation being debated in DC, and this could cause volatility in the equity markets, which tends to happen in September & October from a seasonal perspective. For more info regarding RiverFront’s outlook, please click here for their recent Weekly View.

We will keep you posted as we head towards the end of Q3 and the beginning of Q4. As always, thank you for your trust and confidence!

09/03/2021: Leaves of Change

Click here to watch the video. 

We are already seeing pops of color in the mountains in Colorado, even though fall officially doesn’t start for another few weeks. Further north in the Rockies, the Fed just wrapped up their annual Jackson Hole summit. Since the stock market is always watching and listening to the Fed’s behavior, we too, have been interested in the impact on the market, if any.

The Fed remains focused on three factors: employment, financial stability, and inflation. According to Chairman Powell, if each variable does not change enough to meet the Fed’s targets, interest rates will remain low. This is where we stand, according to the Fed:

• At this time, unemployment numbers are not where the Fed would like them to be. This is especially evident after the August jobs reports released today.
• Consumer balance sheets and inventory rebuilding are backstopping the US economy, which indicates that financial stability is present.
• Chairman Powell still believes that inflation is transitory.

Does this mean change is on the horizon? The Fed has indicated that tapering (buying fewer bonds each month) will likely start in 4Q2021. This is earlier than previous forecasts, yet the market seemed to be expecting this, so the reaction was minimal. Still, the Fed appears to be committed to waiting on raising rates until late 2022. In the words of Strategas, “But, while the foot is coming off the gas, pressing on the brake (raising rates) is not close.”

What do we do with this information? We rely on our money managers’ expertise to adjust portfolios and prepare us for the future. For example, our active managers have added exposure to companies and sectors that traditionally have performed well in inflationary environments (e.g. materials, financials, energy). Therefore, there are no changes to our approach and philosophy. During times like these, it is particularly important to remain committed to your financial plan. Please contact us if you have questions about your Plan, or if you would like to update your current situation.

In the meantime, we will leave the changing to the leaves!

08/20/2021: Back to School

Click here to watch the video. 

Here in the metro Denver area, summer is over ☹. The kiddos all went back to school this week. The good news is that previously separated classmates are reunited, teachers are teaching in-person, and sports/activity schedules are back to normal. The bad news is the rapidly spreading Delta variant, and although students are required to wear masks, there is great concern that things may change and become more restrictive again.

Likewise, there are concerns for the global economy, although you wouldn’t know it from watching the behavior of the US stock market. The equity markets respond to earnings, and the Q2 reporting season has been coming in hot, greatly exceeding expectations and year-over-year comparisons. As Kelly talked about last time, the US economic cycle has emerged from the “recovery” stage and is now in the “expansion” phase. This phase tends to be positive for stocks, but also brings with it more volatility and at times periods of sideways movement rather than constantly hitting new highs.

At this time, all eyes are on inflation: Is it merely “transitory” or is it really more “sticky” than we thought? Our friends at Strategas point out that the Fed originally thought that inflation would be fleeting and likely subside as we entered into summer. As we all know, this hasn’t happened, and it looks like inflation is here to stay with us for the unforeseeable future. The Fed is now signaling that it may taper their bond purchases sooner than initially indicated, possibly beginning this year. Add to this the concerns about upcoming tax & stimulus legislation, the resurgence of COVID variants, geopolitical concerns with places such as China and Afghanistan, and it becomes easy to see that there are some mighty, big bricks in the Wall-of-Worry. Will the US equity markets continue to climb…or might there be a stumble? We have been waiting for a correction for quite some time, and it will happen eventually. As we have said time and again, market pullbacks are normal, and actually the sign of a healthy market. So, stay tuned, and we will keep you posted!

08/09/2021: Market Cycles & The Olympic Games

Click here to watch the video. 

The return of the summer Olympics has been welcome entertainment in my household this summer. As soon as the theme music starts, our excitement and emotions activate. It is hard to fathom the amount of time, effort, and sacrifice so many people dedicate to making their Olympic dreams come true. And, then suddenly, the Olympics are over, and the training cycle starts over.

As you know, the stock market has its own cycles. And like the Olympics, the average duration of a bull market is 4-5 years. If the market were to behave “normally”, the movement would be reminiscent of a dance: three steps forward, one step backward. Though since the bottom of the market decline in April 2020, the market has kept dancing forward, with no steps back. As of August 4th, the S&P 500 is up 18.19% YTD. Accordingly, we not only believe we are due for a pullback, but we also welcome it.

As a reminder, market corrections are normal and quite common. In fact, a pullback here and there is healthy, and a sign that the market is functioning properly. This article helps to provide more context on this exact subject. Specifically, corrections present attractive buying opportunities, give earnings a chance to catch-up with prices and stabilize future market volatility. We acknowledge downturns evoke emotions (just like when I cry during the Olympic medal ceremonies), which is why we remind you of these inevitable events ahead of time.

Yet, the pullback is not here and there are many variables which indicate it may not be here for a while. Here are the important indicators we are watching:

• Expansion Phase: We are just now entering the expansion phase of this bull market. This is because the US GDP has recently surpassed the GDP level from February 2020 (pre-COVID recession).
• Earnings Strength: As of this writing, 403 companies have reported Q2 2021 earnings. Thus far, 87.6% of the companies have reported earnings above forecast. The forecast reflected a 60% increase from Q2 2020 earnings.
• Cash balances held by households and many businesses remain high.
• The Fed is committed to keeping interest rates low until unemployment levels decrease significantly.

Just as the Olympians train for their big moment, we remain dedicated to help you stick to your Plan—no matter where we lie in the market cycle. In the meantime, we hope you enjoy watching the Olympics wind down!

As always, thank you for your trust and confidence!

07/23/2021: International investing back on the radar…finally!

Click here to watch the video. 

We hosted our latest installment of our “experts unplugged” series on July 21st and David Lubchenco, of Chautauqua Capital Management shared his insights about the international markets. Specifically, David reminded us that Harry Markowitz once said, “Diversification is the only free lunch”, which is why we usually have some international exposure in our portfolios.

Here are a few key takeaways:

• There tends to be an inverse relationship between the strength of the US dollar and the performance in the international sector. In other words, in a declining US dollar environment (such as the one we are in now), the international index (MSCI ACWI) has historically outperformed the US index (S&P 500).
• Stock pickers may have the advantage over the passively-managed-indexes at this juncture. For example, the US stock index (S&P 500) has outperformed the non-US index (MSCI ACWI) annually 9 out of the past 11 years. Yet during that same timeframe, 76% of the top performing stocks have been non-US companies.

As you often hear us say, asset allocation is our first line of defense. This is why we continuously have an international equity component in our portfolios. As “risk-managers”, we utilize diversification as a tool to help maximize your return-per-unit-of-risk. Afterall just like Markowitz, everyone loves a free lunch 😊.

To listen to the full replay of the event, please click here. Password: JuVK3E9q

As always, thank you for your trust and confidence.

07/08/2021: Second Half Ups-and-Downs

Click here to watch the video. 

We hope you had a great 4th of July weekend and that you continue to have a great summer!

The first half of 2021 has been quite the journey! With meme-stock-mania, cryptocurrency-hype, historical fiscal stimulus, widespread COVID vaccinations, post-pandemic opening up of the economy…wow…did I miss anything? And yet stocks are up double-digits over the last 6 months. What about the second half of 2021?

Our macro-economic team at Strategas has shared their “Five Themes for the Second Half” and not surprisingly, the theme of “sticky inflation” is at the top of the list (Click here to read). Thus far the market has had somewhat of a muted reaction to inflation fears, which is likely because the Fed has done a good job convincing folks that the current inflation numbers are transitory, indeed resulting from pent-up demand alongside interrupted supply chains. Many of us, however, are not buying that narrative. Even an increase from an average 2% to 3% (50%!) in inflation would be significant for investors. Also, the Fed is under considerable political pressure to not raise interest rates (to fight inflation) until our economy can add at least another 7.5 million workers to reach pre-COVID levels of employment.

So where do we want to invest in a rising interest rate environment? We agree with Strategas in that the Energy, Materials, Industrials and Financials equity sectors can provide a good hedge. Also, companies that generate better cash flow, have less debt, and return cash to investors quicker via dividends and/or share-repurchases, may have the advantage over companies that rely on more leverage.

Stay tuned! The second half of 2021 will likely have its ups-and-downs, and we will keep you posted.

As always, thank you for your trust and confidence.

6/25/2021: Climb Every Mountain…

Click here to watch the video. 

Our macro-economic team at Strategas produced a great piece that we wanted to share with you. It’s a short one-pager, and they discuss one of the most common questions that we are hearing today when we speak with our clients, and that is: Can the markets keep going up from here? Isn’t this thing too high? When will there be a correction? Click here to read!

Strategas developed a bull-market-top checklist that they have been using for two decades. There are nine conditions listed, and as of the beginning of this month, they have checked off only 2 of the 9 (22%). Increasing IPO activity and a “blow-off top” are two conditions that we have experienced, but there are several conditions that still need time to play out. For example, inflows into stock funds have increased recently, but not to the level we would expect for a bull market top. There is still a lot of capitol sitting in money market funds earning very little interest. When might that get deployed? Also, as we experienced in previous quarters, the frequent upward revision to corporate-earnings- estimates has been astounding. When will this phenomenon begin to dissipate? We will find out as soon as next month since Q2 is soon ending and earnings reports will begin in July.

In looking at the chart for the S&P500 index, it is easy to spot that the market has slowed its upward trend since mid-April. For the last several months, the market has been hitting new highs, and then coming down a couple of percentage points until it reaches its 50-day moving average, and then bounces right back up again. A true “correction” would be a downward move to the 200-day trend (or below), which would be about a -9% drop from where the market is trading at this writing. Keep in mind, even if we dropped -9% from here, we would back to March/April levels.

We are still in a bull market, but there will be fits-and-starts, pullbacks and corrections. We will happily keep you posted along the way!

As always, thank you for your trust and confidence, and wishing you a wonderful summer!

6/10/2021: Happy Summer from the BHG!

Click here to watch the video. 

(That’s the Boh Heppe Group, not the Big Hairy Giant.)

We are thrilled to issue our first edition of the Biweekly Commentary from The Boh Heppe Group! While there is an exciting energy that emerges from transformation, our focus for the remainder of this year (and beyond!) continues to be stability and consistency.

Accordingly, we want to highlight what you can look forward to and expect from our Team in the second half of 2021.

Summer Fun

The Boh Heppe Group: With over 35 years of combined experience in the financial services arena, we are passionately dedicated to our role as the financial guardian and steward for you and your family. Our summer fun activity kicks off this month, to help you get to know us even better. Throughout the next several biweeklies, we will drop hints about our similarities and differences. If you pay attention, your hard work and curiosity will pay off!

Office Re-open! After more than a year of serving our clients in a hybrid work environment, we are beyond thrilled to have our Team 100% back in the office! Yes, this means we are scheduling in-person meetings. Woo hoo!

Something Special: We are sending you something special . Keep a look-out in the coming weeks for a small token representing how much we appreciate you. Contact the Team with any questions (note: we will not spoil any surprises!).

Thursday Afternoon Club (TAC): For our clients who live in the Denver area, we will be hosting a handful of happy hours this summer. The agenda? Creating opportunities to see you live and in-person. Stay tuned for more details; we hope to see you soon!

Private Client Event, Celebrating Women Trailblazers: We are excited to extend an exclusive invitation to our clients to participate in this virtual event featuring Anne Sempowski Ward (CEO, Spectrum Brands) and Jessica Alba (CEO, Honest). Join us Wednesday June 23rd, 4:00 CST; contact the Team to RSVP.

Concierge service you can count on.

One-on-One Meetings: These will be pre-scheduled by Alisha & Micki. Of course, we will reach out in between these meetings to stay up to date on your lives as well as to keep you apprised of any relevant financial planning-related topics. As always, you are welcome to reach out to us at any time

Biweekly Commentaries: Every other week, we will continue to send you our thoughts on the markets and financial planning. Our objective is that you hear about these topics in a condensed and timely manner.

Monthly Strategy Webinars: Presented by Baird, these monthly webinars provide a deep dive into wealth management topics. Up Next: What You Need to Know About the Proposed Tax Law Changes on June 16th at Noon CST. Click here to register.

Every day we wake up grateful for the opportunity to partner with you on your financial journey. As always, thank you for your trust and confidence.

Here’s to a great rest of the year!

5/27/2021: Changing of the Guard: Planning for Continuity

Click here to watch the video. 

Karen: In my final bi-weekly appearance I want to thank you with all my heart for entrusting me to guide you in your financial journey…it has meant the world to me. As I transition from Director to Client, I could not be more thrilled to have Tom and Kelly at the helm of the new financial advisory team: The Boh Heppe Group. Tom and Kelly have over 35 years combined experience in the financial services arena and their credentials and dedication to total wealth management with concierge level services is unwavering. I’m looking forward to what lies ahead for all of us.

Tom: Partnering with Karen since coming to Baird, over 11 years ago has been an amazing journey. It has been a privilege and a blessing to work side-by-side with one of the most talented and charismatic human beings I have ever met. The main objective of our partnership since the beginning, was to implement not just a succession plan, but a continuity plan. We wanted someone we could trust to take care of not only our own families, but especially our clients in case something happened to one of us. As planners we know at some point, we are going to have a transition like this, so we wanted to be prepared. And that is one of the many reasons we were so happy to find Kelly eight years ago!

Kelly: For 38 years, Karen has served multiple generations of families, advising them (firmly and lovingly!) in the many facets of financial stewardship. We have learned so much from Karen about this incredible vocation we practice, and all the while enjoying the adventure! While we will miss Karen, it is her turn to check off items from her bucket list and execute the final part of her financial plan. Tom and I are ready and excited to take charge! Partnering with each of you to help you create the financial future that you want—both for yourself and the people you care about – is not a responsibility that we take lightly. We are committed to you and endeavor to continue to earn your trust every day.

As always, thank you for your trust and confidence.

5/14/2021: Jobs, Inflation…and Clutching-our-Pearls

Click here to watch the video. 

There is always something to worry about when it comes to the financial markets, and sometimes these concerns turn out to be legit, but oftentimes they are just another step in the wall-of worry.

For example, we had a BIG miss in the payrolls report this past week, and of course this became headline news and even seemed to affect the stock market for a few days. As our Private Wealth Management Research Team points out in this article, the raw data in April showed a gain of 1.1MM jobs, but by the time the data was seasonally adjusted, the final number did not meet expectations. In other words, the actual number wasn’t bad, but the estimates indeed were inaccurate, so time-will-tell whether or not we have a downward trend…most likely not in our view.

The other topic in the news is inflation. Inflation expectations are important and do affect the stock market. Anecdotally, we are seeing inflation all over the place. E.g., my teenage son even noticed that gasoline prices have really gone up recently, was very annoyed and wanted me to explain why! Also, you may have noticed that certain car dealerships have no inventory sitting out on the lot, due to the shortage of computer parts needed to manufacture the final product. There are numerous other examples of rising prices in the wake of disrupted supply chains. The big question really is whether the inflation we are experiencing is transitory, or is it permanent? At this time, the “experts” at the Fed and elsewhere argue that the inflation we are experience will be fleeting. In time, we will figure out if this is the case. In my mind this is a legit concern at this juncture.

As we have noted often, stocks really are the best hedge against inflation. And keep in mind that our equity mangers are tweaking their portfolios to handle potential inflation and account for where we are in the economic cycle. As always, we will keep you posted as time goes on.

As always, thank you for your trust and confidence.

4/28/2021: The Ride Continues:

Click here to watch the video. 

Can you believe that it has been over a year since the COVID-19 recession? So much has transpired since then! During our most recent “experts unplugged” educational webinar, Randy McLaughlin portfolio manager of the Strategic Asset Management strategy, illustrated a straightforward account of what happened last year and why he believes there is still a lot of momentum propelling the market upward in 2021. Head to our website for the full replay of the presentation.

Good news for 2021

The stock market’s thrust at the end of 2020, has carried into 2021. This is mostly attributed to economies reopening. There has been an +81% stock market return between the low on March 23, 2020 to the high a year later. As Karen stated in our last biweekly, “don’t fight it, ride it”! Most impressively, corporate earnings have recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, the consumer has never been this healthy coming out of a recession: house prices are high, debt levels are down, and savings rates elevated to above 20% in 2020.

What can go wrong?

There will always be factors that can disrupt the ride. We will specifically be watching for rising inflation and new policies’ impact on the market. Other potential future concerns include potential for COVID resurgence and variants, delays in vaccine inoculation and sentiment around vaccines.

Takeaways from 2020

While there are plenty of lessons to take away from last year, specifically there are four investment philosophies that were tested and proven successful yet again. Spoiler alert-- these concepts are not new, and you have heard us repeat time and again:

• Appropriate asset allocation is still the best decision you can make for your investments.
• Bonds are buffers for stability.
• Owning quality companies works in times of volatility.
• Time in the market more important than timing the market.

We are committed to keeping you informed and providing many outlets to communicate and advocate for your financial wellbeing. There will be ups and downs in the stock market and in our lives. Do not worry, we will always be riding alongside with you. 

As always, thank you for your trust and confidence.

4/13/2021: Don’t fight it…ride it!

Click here to watch the video. 

The path this market continues to take is one of economic recovery and renewed activity on the heels of fiscal stimulus and low interest rates.  At the time of this writing the S&P 500 is over 4100 and the Dow is nearing 34000. 

With earnings season starting this week, the expectations are for significant increases, which may already be already reflected in the stock market valuations.  More telling will be the forward-looking expectations regarding the sustainability of these profit margins as corporations face potential increases in corporate tax rates in a post pandemic economy.

During a panel discussion hosted by the International Monetary Fund, Fed Chair Jerome Powell argued that the economic recovery is not helping everyone equally. He elaborated on this claim by stating that there are still a lot of people who don’t have jobs, and he will do whatever it takes to make sure people don’t feel left behind. The remarks were taken positively by financial markets. It suggests the Fed has no intention to raise rates in the foreseeable future.

Is there trouble ahead?  There is always trouble ahead. But should you rise to meet it or let it wash over you?

Producers are being faced with the dual challenge of increased demand and ongoing supply chain problems causing the inability to sufficiently meet that demand, the effects of which can be seen shown in the jump in March’s (PPI) producers price index report.  The upcoming (CPI) consumer price index report should show whether the higher prices that producers are facing are flowing through to consumers. These reports indicate some headwinds for stock prices as profit margins are tighten and that inflation may return.

Also, there are some thoughts that the market may not be pricing in the risk of a policy shift in the proposed corporate tax rates and the potential new global minimum tax. Our take is that there will be plenty of time to see how this unfolds.

For now, enjoy the ride while it lasts…and know that there will eventually be a correction.  And lest we forget our constant refrain:  “Your asset allocation is your first line of defense!”.  We will continue to stay vigilant and keep you posted.

In summary, we are keeping an eye on it so you can just enjoy the ride…for now.  

As always, thank you for your trust and confidence.

4/1/2021: Keeping-an-Eye on Inflation

Click here to watch the video. 

In our last biweekly, Kelly talked about how owning stocks is a key component of building wealth.  Today I want to talk about inflation, especially since we have a FED policy that is emphasizing job growth at the very same time that Congress is passing multiple economic stimulus bills.  Could this combination cause long-term, 70s-style inflation or god-forbid, hyperinflation?

Inflation measures how much goods and services can we buy for our dollar, or in other words, our purchasing power as time goes on. Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure), which measures the cost of goods and services (minus food and energy) is at about 1.4%. The 12-mth CPI rate, which does include food and energy currently measures about 1.7%. Inflation expectations as reflected in the bond market over the next 5-years are currently running at about 2.6%. In a nutshell, these numbers seem pretty tame at this point in time.

But let’s not allow the current numbers to obscure the amount of inflation that we are experiencing on a personal level.  The included chart breaks out the average inflation rate into some of its component parts, which in our view hits closer-to-home.  There are categories that have been deflationary: TVs, software, cars, and clothing.  And of course, there are higher inflationary items, such as hospital services, college tuition, & childcare.  From a financial planning perspective, this information can be helpful (if not a little daunting!) in helping us formulate your long-term Financial Goal Plan.  That’s why we always include inflation in our probability analyses!

What should we have in our portfolios to hedge against inflation?  Equities…which brings us back to Kelly’s message about building and sustaining wealth.  While past performance is no guarantee of future results, stocks have returned about 9.8% annually since 1928 while inflation has run at about 3%.  That represents a real return of almost 7% above inflation.  We all know firsthand that stocks can be volatile, which is why we customize your asset allocation to fit your risk tolerance.

As always, thank you for your trust and confidence.

3/18/2021: Dieting and Building Wealth: The secret to the success is the same.

Click here to watch the video. 

We have all tried multiple approaches to find ways to lose weight and eat healthier. Believe it or not, the same phenomenon plagues wealth building strategies.

The secret to building wealth (and eating healthier) is not rocket science, it is discipline. Discipline to make sacrifices now, to achieve a future goal. Sacrifices so important, it can make the difference of millions of dollars by retirement.

The secret? Let’s start with the basics:

Are there shortcuts? Sure. But they involve more luck than skill and usually are not for the long term.

To highlight the importance these of these tactics, our friends at Riverfront Investment Group recently released a report with examples illustrating the impact these rules have to your financial journey. Based on the assumptions from the report, adopting these basic rules will enhance your financial success by millions of dollars. Click here to read the report. While the report is geared towards younger investors, we find it applicable to all investors still in the accumulation phase of their journey.

We are so passionate about helping you create and build a healthy financial plan. To that end, we are your accountability partners helping you to be disciplined in your approach, just as we are with ours. Here’s to avoiding the shortcuts, following the rules and enjoying the journey together!

The IRS has extended the 2020 Tax Filing deadline to May 17th.

If you have not yet filed your 2020 tax return, you have extra time this year. Which also means you have extra time to contribute to a Roth or Traditional IRA for 2020! Contact the team for more information.

2/19/2021: New highs often lead to…more new highs!

Click here to watch the video. 

Sorry to disappoint, but we are not referring to cannabis stocks…maybe another time.

The most amazing thing happening right now may not even be on planet Earth, but rather, planet Mars!  Yes, while many earthlings are tentative to travel at this time (but not for long!), the NASA rover named "Perseverance" just completed its seven-month, 292-million-mile journey to the red planet, and successfully landed.  The fact that we human beings can engineer something like this and make it happen is remarkable.  In addition to inspiring hope, it proves once again that when we earthlings put our mind towards a goal, we can accomplish just about anything.

Meanwhile, here on Earth, there has been lots of talk about stock market highs, and elevated valuations.  What are we to make of these crazy Price/Earnings (P/E) ratios?  The S&P 500 index has a P/E multiple of about 22.2x forward-12-month earnings, which is about 25% higher than the five-year average of 17.7x earnings.  If we only look at P/E multiples as the sole variable, then yes, they may seem crazy.  However, if we add context, such as the current interest rate environment, in addition to how quickly earnings are recovering, then maybe not.  In the financial marketplace, the alternative to stocks is typically bonds.  With bond yields so low (well below inflation), investors don’t mind paying more for stocks that may grow and/or pay a stable dividend.  If earnings continue to grow, then yes, the stock market may continue to establish new highs.

This doesn’t mean that there won’t be an occasional correction!  At this time, the S&P 500 index is trading about 10% above its 200-day moving average.  For you folks that like to look at charts, it is common for pullbacks to test the 200-day moving average.  From our perspective, a market correction would be healthy, likely temporary, and a good time to consider buying.

Perseverance is now on Mars!  (Way to go, NASA!).  And let’s remember that perseverance, tenacity and determination continue to thrive here at home.  We wish you all-the-best as we get vaccinated, head towards springtime and hopefully get back to traveling and doing the fun things we’ve been waiting for!

As always, thank you for your trust and confidence.

2/3/2021: Bubble, Bubble, Toil, and Trouble

Click here to watch the video. 

This seems to be the number one topic on the minds of most investors. Is the market in a bubble?

Yes, a bullish outlook indeed for stocks.

This is completely understandable based on the surprising resilience and recovery of the stock market last year, rallying to a point that is seemingly ahead of earnings.

Price to earnings ratios seem lofty (at least on some stocks like Tesla), Speculation in stocks discussed on internet message boards have also sent a few stocks skyrocketing like Gamestop; and then there is the ever gut-wrenching roller-coaster ride of bitcoin. All these seem reminiscent of the tech bubble in 1999 where investment reason was abandoned, and stock prices just ran rampant.

Many investors are just looking for signs of a top so they can…what? Get out before? In our experience, that is never a long-term sustainable investment practice. Asset allocation, rebalancing and diversification can help protect you so you can reach your long-term goals*. Ahh, but the sizzle is so exciting, right? Let’s be clear…speculation is not the same as investing.

It's also important to note that the “stock market” is broader than just a handful or individual names that have rallied. There are growth stocks and IPO’s that have seen an amazing move over the last two years, while Value stocks with their clean, boring balance sheets have barely moved. Could there be opportunity still in different sectors?

Our friends at Strategas created a “bull market top” checklist to attempt to identify and categorize key market items that are present at most market tops. As of now with inflation low and the FED promising to remain accommodative, the earnings outlook continues to improve…the checklist remains largely unchecked.

It would not surprise us if investors started taking some profits and rebalancing portfolios, allowing the S&P 500 to reset a little. Corrections are common and instrumental to the long-term success of investing.

We remain steady at the helm and in our reviews we’ll be discussing your individual portfolios to make sure they are balanced and continue to match your risk tolerance and goals.

Educational Event Replay Now Available!

On January 20th, we hosted a virtual education event featuring Doug Sandler, CFA® Head of Globally Strategy for Riverfront Investments. To listen to the audio reply, simply dial 888-899-7904, use playback ID 414920035#.

As always, thank you for your trust and confidence.

1/22/2021: Sunny Outlook for 2021!

Click here to watch the video. 

Those of us who live in Colorado are blessed to be surrounded by natural beauty, and that includes the amazing number of sunny days we experience even when the temperatures drop below freezing. Thankfully, lots of vitamin D!

The sun seems to be shining on the stock market as well. According to our friends at RiverFront Investment Group, the world’s economy is experiencing a rebirth. We believe as more and more people become vaccinated, the economy will continue to re-open, and the pent-up demand for goods and services will continue to drive up earnings and GDP. We are in the recovery stages of this economic cycle, and that tends to treat equities well, particularly in a low-interest rate environment

Are there a few clouds on the distant horizon? Oh yes, as always…but how distant? Debt levels are at all-time highs. PE ratios are also quite high. We have record levels of monetary and fiscal stimulus that may eventually lead to higher inflation. Asset bubbles, anyone? The markets will continue to deal with these issues as time goes on, but keep in mind that if earnings and the overall economy continues to grow, then PE ratios will come down, as well as the amount of debt relative to GDP.

So for now, the sun seems to be shining for 2021. We thought the same about this time last year…until COVID surprised us. Hopefully there won’t be that kind of surprise this year.

The sun is also shining on the Ogard Boh Group! Our beloved Karen has decided to retire this year in May. After almost 38 years of serving clients, Karen will now have the opportunity to work on her bucket-list, which somehow gets neglected when running a business full time. Additionally, wonderful Kelly has been promoted to Partner, and we are so excited for her! Our commitment has always been to serve you as multi-generational team serving multi-generational clients, and that will not change.

Here’s to the New Year! As always, thank you for your trust and confidence!

1/6/2021: Carpe Diem: Seize the Day

Click here to watch the video. 

Seize the day! And it’s a new day.

Lesson’s I’ve learned from 2020 and COVID-19.

1) It takes more than isolation to get this house organized.
2) I really only wear about 1/3rd of my closet.
3) I started out enjoying working from home.
4) I never knew I was addicted to Netflix and Amazon Prime!
5) I really, really miss my travel and adventure.

As a planner I believe that while planning is paramount to success; so is executing your plan! It’s time to execute the final part of my plan.

After building this team with Tom and making every decision together over the last 11 years, we are ready to have Tom, Kelly and the Team take over while I move towards retirement from the financial services industry this year. I am targeting a retirement date of May 31st 2021. We will take several of our next visits to make sure your plan is secure, and all your needs have been addressed with every member of the team. To that end, we have listed your customized service schedule below.

I am proud of the Ogard Boh Group. Our team has all the qualities to advise you moving forward. They have experience, professionalism, credentials, and a dedication to you that runs deep. I am confident in their abilities to continue to provide concierge service that places you and your needs in the forefront. This is why I will continue to entrust my investments and financial plan to them and am looking forward to having them advise all of us in the coming years.

As I look back over my 37-year career, I have had the great fortune of caring for you and your family in all stages of your wealth journey. You have invited me into your lives and entrusted me with your financial picture. Without a doubt, I am honored (and humbled) with the trust you have placed with me and have loved being an advisor, (sometimes counselor) and friend. You have truly enriched my life and I am forever grateful.

In my next chapter, I plan to dedicate my full time to exploring all the places, people and things I have yet to experience. I want to thank you with all my heart for entrusting me to guide you through your financial journey and, above all, for your friendship.

As always, thank you for your trust and confidence.