Pattern Watch: Midterms, Markets & More
Kelly: Hi everyone, and welcome to this week’s biweekly update. I’m Kelly Heppe, joined as always by Alex and Tom.
Tax season is now in full swing, and many of you are gathering your documents and preparing to file. We know this can feel stressful, so here’s a quick update to help make things smoother.
Baird releases tax documents in waves to reduce the likelihood of amended forms later—meaning fewer headaches for you and your tax preparer.
Here’s where things stand:
• Wave 1 documents, including your 1099 Rs, are now available online and have been mailed.
• Wave 2 documents are expected within the next week.
• If any of your documents are held for Wave 3, our team will notify you immediately so you know exactly when to expect them.
We’re monitoring everything closely. If anything looks unclear or you’re not sure where to find a document, please reach out—we’re always here to help
With that, I’ll turn it over to Alex.
Alex: Thanks, Kelly. Today we wanted to highlight a few market patterns, especially with a midterm election approaching.
Historically, midterm years tend to be a bit bumpier. Markets often experience a deeper intra year pullback—about 19% on average, compared with roughly 14% in other years of the presidential cycle. Choppiness has often created opportunity: the S&P 500 hasn’t posted a negative 12 month return following a midterm election since 1938.
With that, I’ll pass it to Tom.
Source Strategas Securities LLC
Tom: Thanks, Alex. And at the risk of tempting fate, we truly are in a global bull market right now.
In the U.S., we’re about three and a half years into this cycle, and it’s possible the trend continues until something unexpected shifts us into a bear market or recession.
Source: Robert W. Baird & Co
As Alex noted, markets rarely move in a straight line. It’s more like a rhythm—three steps forward, one step back; sometimes four steps forward, one step back. No one can pinpoint exactly when a pause or pullback will occur. That said, we’ll continue to monitor new information and manage risk along the way.
As always, thank you for your trust and confidence. Until next time, take care.