Prepare for the Worst, Hope for the Best
Tom:
Hello and welcome to our biweekly update. I’m Tom Boh of the Boh Heppe Group, joined by my partners Kelly Heppe and Alex Phillips.
This week, we hosted our Experts Unplugged call with Mark Nickel from Baird Trust. If you missed it, the replay is available on our website (click here) and definitely worth a listen. To dive into that discussion, I’ll hand it over to Alex.
Alex:
Thanks, Tom. It was great having Mark on the call. One key takeaway was the shift in sentiment and how it’s impacting corporate behavior.
According to Chief Executive Magazine, the percentage of CEOs expecting to increase capital spending in the next 12 months dropped from 56% in January to 26% in April—a 30-point decline. Hiring expectations saw a similar drop, from 60% to 29%.
This highlights how uncertainty leads both companies and individual investors to take a more cautious approach. We’ll likely need greater economic clarity before seeing a reversal in this trend. Kelly, what are you seeing?
Kelly:
Thanks, Alex. We’ve heard from many clients that recent volatility has been tough, even though it’s only been a couple of months. Historically, we’ve been through worse, but it’s still very unsettling.
One interesting point: As of April 3rd, if you exclude the “Magnificent 7” stocks, the S&P 500 was down only about 2%. With them included, it’s down over 8%. This shows the importance of diversification. If you were concentrated in those few stocks, your performance likely suffered more than a well-diversified portfolio.
In short, current data looks solid, but forward-looking indicators remain uncertain. As Alex mentioned, more clarity is needed before markets find direction. Tom, what’s your take on how we move forward
Tom:
One important distinction is between what’s happening in the broader S&P 500—especially with the Magnificent 7—and what’s happening in your individual portfolio. They’re not always the same.
We always manage for downside risk—whether from a pullback, recession, or bear market—and we’ll continue to address that in our individual reviews.
Also, Mark Nickel, as head of Baird Trust, brought up some great planning tools and services now available to us. These can really add value, see below for more information.
As always, thank you for your trust and confidence. Until next time, take care.
Tom, Kelly, Alex, Amanda, Jesus, Larry, & Rachael
Baird Trust Services
As mentioned during our event, Baird merged with Hillyard Lyons Trust Company over 6 years ago. The services available from the Trust Company to our clients are invaluable and were not available previously! Contact the team to learn more and join us for our future event highlighting these benefits in greater detail later this year.
Family Fee Discount
Did you know we now offer a discount on advisory fees for family members? Contact the team to request more information. As a reminder, as a Family Wealth Team, we endeavor to serve our families for multiple generations, assisting not only with financial wealth transfer, but also honoring your family’s history and legacy to guide future generations with similar purposes.