The Fed, Geopolitics & Taxes

Kelly:

Hello everyone, and welcome to this week’s bi-weekly. I’m Kelly Heppe, and I’m joined by my partners, Tom and Alex. First, we want to wish a belated Happy Father’s Day to all the dads and grandfathers out there—we hope you had a wonderful weekend.

Let’s start with the Federal Reserve. They meet again this week, and so far this year, they’ve kept interest rates unchanged through the first three meetings. Consensus suggests that this steady approach is likely to continue.

Chair Jerome Powell has stressed the importance of waiting for clearer signs of labor market resilience, sustained inflation declines, and better clarity around new tariffs and rising geopolitical tensions. While some market participants are growing impatient with this cautious stance, others view it as prudent—especially given the ongoing disconnect between soft and hard economic data and rising geopolitical tensions.

Alex, can you share more on the geopolitical front?

Alex:

Thanks, Kelly. Geopolitical risk is currently elevated, especially with the ongoing developments in the Middle East. It’s one of the most intense periods we’ve seen in recent memory, and we do expect more surprises ahead.

That said, risk is a constant in both life and investing. Our Team accounts for this in our risk management strategies and long-term planning approach. With that, I’ll turn it over to Tom.

Tom:

Thanks, Alex. I get to cover everyone’s favorite topic—taxes. The House recently submitted its version of a new tax bill, and we expect the Senate’s version to be released today. Early reports suggest it looks significantly different, so reconciling the two could take time.

There’s urgency around this due to the debt ceiling, a potentially slowing economy, and the current tax law set to expire at the end of the year. As these factors converge, we anticipate markets will start paying more attention.

One quick reminder: Our office will be closed on Thursday, June 19th, in observance of Juneteenth. We believe the markets will be closed as well.
As always, thank you for your continued trust and confidence. Until next time, take care.

Market & Office Closed: Thursday, June 19th 

As a reminder, the market and our offices will be closed this Thursday to honor the Juneteenth Federal Holiday. Our office will resume normal operating hours on Friday, June 20th.

Its Back... Summer Happy Hour Series!

We're excited to bring back our Summer Patio Happy Hour Series! Join us on the Baird 9th floor patio for great food, drinks and good company. SAVE THE DATES: June 25th and August 21st.